India’s 7.8% GDP ‘Miracle’: Like That Sudden Voter Surge—Only When Ruling Party Need a Win!

What the Government Says

India’s GDP—the value of everything produced in the country—grew by 7.8% in Q1 of 2025-26 (April to June 2025), according to the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), a government department responsible for these numbers. The official release states: “Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.8% in Q1 of FY 2025-26 over the growth rate of 6.5% during Q1 of FY 2024-25”. Real GDP means the total value after removing the effects of rising prices, not just the bigger bills people see at the store.

How the Government Calculates GDP

• The CSO/NSO uses two main ways:

  • Production method: Adds up the value created in sectors like farming, manufacturing, and services, subtracting raw material costs.

  • Expenditure method: Adds up spending by people, companies, and the government, including investments and exports.

• These numbers come from many sources—farmers, factories, companies, government budgets—and get adjusted for inflation, so the “real” growth isn’t just about higher prices.

Why the 7.8% GDP Feels Unreal to Many People

Despite this official growth, many people feel they’re worse off. Here’s why:

1. High Prices for Fuel and Goods

• Even though the government claims inflation (general price rise) was very low (less than 1%), people see fuel above ₹100/litre and rising prices for food and rent.

• GDP uses something called the “GDP deflator” for its inflation adjustment, which was much lower than actual consumer inflation people felt at the market.

• This makes the GDP look higher, just like adding more “votes” by lowering the bar, rather than by real improvement.

2. Unemployment Stays High

• Officially, India’s unemployment rate was around 5.1% in April–June 2025, but among young people, especially in cities, it was much higher—urban youth unemployment reached almost 19%.

• Many educated people aren’t finding good jobs, and street vendors or daily wage workers often aren’t counted properly.

• If a huge part of the population isn’t earning well, how can the economy be “booming”?

3. Informal Economy and Black Money

• Much of India’s economy is cash-based or off-the-books, not counted fully by official data. This “black money” isn’t always tracked, so GDP may not tell the full story, or it might count some of this spending in a way that makes the economy look better than it really is.

• People see rich getting richer, but their own lives aren’t improving.

4. Discrepancies and Mismatches

• Sometimes the two ways of calculating GDP give very different answers, but the higher number gets the headline.

• When the government focuses only on the best-looking number, it feels to regular people like election season “vote spikes”: lots of hype, not much reality.

What the Numbers Miss

• For common people—shopkeepers, drivers, farmers—the GDP number doesn’t matter if they pay more for vegetables, fuel, or school fees, or can’t get jobs.

• India’s income per person (about ₹2.5 lakh or $2,900 in 2025) is far below richer countries, and most growth is in cities or select industries, not for everyone.

• The government’s focus on “growth” can hide the real pain of rising costs and joblessness.

Takeaway

The 7.8% GDP growth announced by the government is an official statistic, calculated according to international standards by the Ministry of Statistics, but it feels out of touch for many people struggling with high prices and too few good jobs. The methods and numbers are real, but they don’t capture the everyday reality of most Indians—just as sudden surges in voters around elections can be more about politics than a genuine surge in support. For real trust, the government should explain these numbers openly, fix data gaps, and focus on what matters for real lives, not just the headline growth rate.